European Politics

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    ClosetOfExhaustion
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by ClosetOfExhaustion on Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:26 pm

    so have these special called for elections superseded regularly scheduled elections? do you still have those regularly scheduled elections?

    generally curious about how willy-nilly calling for a vote just works out, country-wide, like this. someone says, "lets go to the polls on it!" and a date is set?
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:25 pm

    In the UK, the incumbent calls for one but needs two-thirds of MPs to vote in agreement.

    This breaks it down nicely...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 2:01 pm

    these kind of wafer-thin majorities rarely endure, particularly when reliant on informal "confidence and supply" arrangements. May's authority is greatly eroded so we'll probably see a vote of no confidence or another Tory leadership race in the near future. Followed by another general election.

    God only knows what the implications are for Northern Ireland's precarious power-sharing arrangements and I don't see how the UK government can play a role in getting them back on track when they are getting in bed with the regional Assembly's leading party in a desperate bid to retain a grip on power at Westminster. What a shitshow.

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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:49 pm

    Nick wrote:Is there an article online that summarizes the magnitude of this for an American?
    This is proof that articulating a strong anti-austerity political program and fighting against working/middle-class economic precarity can lead to a successful political coalition. The Labour manifesto was extremely ambitious and included plans to scrap college tuition fees, re-nationalize energy and transportation/railway programs, fighting for regulation of the housing market, etc. and this has proven effective. The Brexit disaster was harder terrain for a Labour campaign because they naturally have a very tepid relationship with globalized/trans-national institutional configurations that often enforce austerity without democratic approval or input. That is my two cents anyway. It is more difficult to imagine in the American context because the British Labour Party was a formative participant in the creation of the British welfare state, whereas the American Democratic Party has a very bizarre historical lineage that includes southern segregationists. It is easier for someone like Corbyn to attach themselves to an existing historical precedent and correct the Blairite neoliberal deviation than it is for someone like Sanders whose only historical basis is FDR and New Deal policy, which feels like a very arcane and exceptional...

    Bruegel wrote:May looks like becoming the second consecutive Tory PM to throw away her career on a coin toss.
    Hardly a coin toss though. The reason they called for the snap election was because everyone assumed Tories would run away with this. They entered with a seventeen seat majority and almost every pollster expected them to increase that by at least ten seats. A few months ago it was predicted that Labour was going to get wiped off the map and that it would throw the Party into further disarray. The big question was whether or not Corbyn would finally step down from his leadership role, which had a lot of people in the PLP licking their chops.

    This is the largest electoral turnaround for any single party in the UK in the postwar era (Miliband got routed in '15). This is massive. The Tories are going to be forced into bed with the socially conservative DUP just to maintain a tenuous governing coalition and they also have to own the Brexit negotiations now, which they fucking should. The only reason that happened was because of a schism within the previously existing Tory government and Cameron wanting to delegitimize UKIP's bargaining position. They essentially just brought the entire continent along for their ridiculous intra-Party rift and they deserve to be dragged into obscurity for it.

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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:19 pm

    Ҩ wrote:
    Nick wrote:Is there an article online that summarizes the magnitude of this for an American?
    This is proof that articulating a strong anti-austerity political program and fighting against working/middle-class economic precarity can lead to a successful political coalition.

    This is so cute! The idea that this result represents an endorsement of the Labour manifesto is adorably Millennial.


    Last edited by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:03 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:28 pm

    My constituency voted 80% Labour (myself included). I don't know a single person over 25 who supports Corbyn.

    (For context, West Belfast is 67% SF)


    I haven't seen a single piece of Labour election literature that makes reference to him or his key policies. All regional campaigning Ive encountered in 3 London boroughs, Newcastle, Birmingham and South Wales is along the lines of "don't worry, Jezza wont get in, so protect local services snd don't give the Tories a blank cheque."


    Last edited by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:47 pm

    Ҩ wrote:
    Bruegel wrote:May looks like becoming the second consecutive Tory PM to throw away her career on a coin toss.
    Hardly a coin toss though.

    When she called it I thought they'd just about hold the majority. By Wednesday I thought a hung Parliament was the most likely outcome. Maybe you don't get a sense of this if you're not on the ground. I am not surprised, mother fucker!
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:12 pm

    Looks like Labour took Kensington. I am surprised mother fucker! Lol.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by undo on Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:22 pm

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-40212652

    We get excited by this stuff but maybe it doesn't matter, I don't know
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:34 pm

    His share only went down 3%. Student vote plays its part but I think the UKIP exodus is the main factor.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:37 pm

    Not that I'm implying a BBC bias. God forbid.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:45 pm

    Bruegel wrote:
    Ҩ wrote:
    Nick wrote:Is there an article online that summarizes the magnitude of this for an American?
    This is proof that articulating a strong anti-austerity political program and fighting against working/middle-class economic precarity can lead to a successful political coalition.

    This is so cute! The idea that this result represents an endorsement of the Labour manifesto is adorably Millennial.
    You've since edited the post, but you were originally implying that I saw this as an endorsement of Jeremy himself, as if this election was a referendum on his leadership. I didn't suggest that, but I do think that Labour's anti-austerity manifesto was a decisive factor, especially after May and the Tories flawed 'dementia tax' proposal on social care, which um, fucking hurts people and is widely unpopular.

    If this isn't an endorsement of the political program of the Labour Party under Corbyn's leadership, what is it then?

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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:46 pm

    A rejection of the alternative.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:51 pm

    Ҩ wrote:
    You've since edited the post, but you were originally implying that I saw this as an endorsement of Jeremy himself, as if this election was a referendum on his leadership. I didn't suggest that


    Yes, sorry. I was reading a post on another board that was much more specific about the Jezza influence and conflated the two. Ive read a lot of this stuff today.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:51 pm

    Bruegel wrote:A rejection of the alternative.
    How do you explain the terrible turnout for the Lib Dems then? After all, Tony Blair suggested that for those who wanted to remain in the European Union and are unhappy with the direction of the Party under Jeremy's leadership, they should vote their conscious by supporting Lib Dem candidates if possible.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:54 pm

    What percentage of the 27% of UK citizens that voted for Labour do you think want Corbyn as leader?

    This is Trump level endorsement.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:57 pm

    Ҩ wrote:
    Bruegel wrote:A rejection of the alternative.
    How do you explain the terrible turnout for the Lib Dems then? After all, Tony Blair suggested that for those who wanted to remain in the European Union and are unhappy with the direction of the Party under Jeremy's leadership, they should vote their conscious by supporting Lib Dem candidates if possible.

    I dont think they'll ever recover from the coalition. Whatever Tone says.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:00 pm

    Bruegel wrote:What percentage of the 27% of UK citizens that voted for Labour do you think want Corbyn as leader?

    This is Trump level endorsement.
    Maybe 10%? I don't know, why does it even matter. Corbyn has faced two leadership elections and won both (the second by an even wider margin) and has brought new energy, and yes young voters, back into the Labour Party. It's a parliamentary system though, so you aren't voting for his leadership, you are voting for the political agenda that he helps create and hopefully someday implement.

    And if Tony's coalition is dead, it might be time to start making new ones.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:06 pm

    Regardless, I don't want to argue about this. You are right that I don't have experience on the ground and that obviously shapes my limited understanding. If you actually predicted this days before hand, good for you. I think you are in the minority though, at least from the coverage this was getting from most major news outlets. The only poll that predicted this was one rogue YouGov poll that people were flippant about and many suggested was actually a political tool being used by Tories to drive voter turnout.

    I live in a country with Donald Trump as President and a minority Party that has abandoned the promises of social democracy and lacks any coherent political agenda for the future. So please, just allow me to enjoy this almost victory happening across the pond.

    This is all I have!
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:09 pm

    I was talking about the Con/Lib coalition government.

    Im not saying Corbyn doesn't have support amongst Labour party membership. Im rejecting the notion that yesterday's result represents a popular endorsement of his leadership.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:17 pm

    Ҩ wrote:please, just allow me to enjoy this almost victory happening across the pond.

    This is all I have!
    I like you and wouldn't want to spoil your enjoyment but this all smacks of hollow triumphalism to me. We have a shitty Tory/DUP government tasked with steering us through the biggest administrative/legislative task in the history of democracy. I find it difficult to be optimistic.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:50 pm

    Fair enough. I both don't have to live with the consequences and have an incredibly paltry understanding of the existing tensions within (Northern) Ireland and the potential effects that this Tory/DUP alliance will have. I know that Cameron wanted to avoid it because it would further disturb tensions between Sinn Féin and the Unionists. At the same time, although DUP supported the Leave campaign the majority of Northern Irish voters voted to Remain and they are opponents of diminished social spending, so it could lead to much 'softer' Brexit negotiations than a outright Tory majority would have.

    Also, saddling themselves to the evangelical, conservative social politics of DUP (anti-LBGT, anti-abortion, etc.) might also wreck the Tories standing elsewhere in the U.K. and could lead to even larger returns for Labour in the next election, which as you mentioned already, might not be that far off.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Soma on Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:36 pm

    Bruegel wrote:My constituency voted 80% Labour (myself included). I don't know a single person over 25 who supports Corbyn.
    "

    I'm honestly not trying to be difficult but this is very far removed from my experience. Having said that, I am sympathetic to the view that the surge in support has more to do with his recent performance, and that far fewer people read manifestos than we realise.
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Ҩ on Sat Jun 10, 2017 2:07 am

    Soma wrote:far fewer people read manifestos than we realise.
    Of course, but the manifesto generates important talking points. There were two important instances where Corbyn's anti-austerity program proved hugely consequential. The first, was the policy gaffe of the 'dementia tax,' and the second were the two terrorist attacks that led to debates about security and police cuts. While Labour is traditionally seen as the weaker of the two major parties on security and crime, Corbyn was uniquely capable of turning this into an austerity issue and shifted the discourse into an issue about public spending.
    https://twitter.com/PolComForum/status/873186390539988993
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    Re: European Politics

    Post by Bruegel on Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:55 am

    I saw Corbyn as uniquely badly placed to win a debate on terrorism/security but my views may be slightly skewed on this:

    I lived in his constituency for 12 years. For 4 years of that period I lived on the same street as Finsbury Park mosque, outside which Abu Hamza delivered his weekly hate speeches (prior to the 2003 raid).

    During this time, Corbyn was deaf to local community concerns about what was happening there and even cited the mosque as an example of multiculturalism.

    Using the latest atrocities to score bobbies-on-the-beat points doesn't really cut it with me.

    Having voted for Corbyn as my local MP at 3 general elections I'm well aware of his strengths but I'm also very familiar with his shortcomings. I appreciate that this is a vantage point not enjoyed by the vast majority of the electorate or overseas observers.

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    Re: European Politics

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