Investors Annonymous

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    C-poots
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    Investors Annonymous

    Post by C-poots on Sun Mar 05, 2017 6:51 pm

    I figured the Dudes forum would be a good place for a running thread about a singular topic that probably will only attract a small subset of the posters here but lets see.

    Any of you guys in the market? And if so what particular investments do you have going on? What is your feeling towards the market right now?

    I recently got on Robinhood which is a bit limiting when it comes to trying to pull off options trades (because you can't at all) but have been building up a portfolio of some stocks. Right now I've got:

    ALLY - Ally Bank
    BOTZ - Majority Japan and US ETF with a focus on AI and robotics
    CGA - Green China Agriculture

    Looking at a few other investments too. Did well with FSLR on a small holding period and sold out of it, caught a little of DVAX upside too but missed out on the big pop because I wanted an option trade on it. Messed around with PIP - Pharmathene to try a little goofy technicals trade and lost a few percentage points but overall I'm up a bit. Sitting on like 70% cash at the moment so the market is beating me but if I was 100% cash I'd be up some multiple of S&P and/or DOW for Feb.

    This thread could totally die out but it might be good to get into what and why you're buying/selling, or even just discuss financial stuff including taxes, market feelings, etc.


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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by C-poots on Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:14 pm

    Just bought AAPL - Apple and AMD - Advanced Micro Devices on a dip. This second one falls outside of my comfort zone a little bit but there is a lot of news that could drive it towards a strong 2017. Paying down debt, growing cashflows, expectations of positive income this year, inclusion in the S&P 500 in about 10 days and should get some pickup from the SPY index funds. Basically a reformed drug addict of a stock, with the potential to relapse at any time.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by Ҩ on Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:23 pm

    I don't have any investments and can't contribute to this conversation, but I'm curious how you might answer these questions C-Poots. The night of Trump's election you posted this:
    C-poots wrote:Well fuck, brexit 2 is already in the markets.

    Why is it that markets, at least through the metric of stock prices and investors profit margins, have increased so dramatically since January? Is this sustainable? Will the Fed's decision to increase the interest rates, most likely by the end of the month, have an immediate effect? What is the likelihood of another recession/crash happening in the next few years?
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by C-poots on Wed Mar 15, 2017 1:01 pm

    Ҩ wrote:I don't have any investments and can't contribute to this conversation, but I'm curious how you might answer these questions C-Poots. The night of Trump's election you posted this:
    C-poots wrote:Well fuck, brexit 2 is already in the markets.

    Why is it that markets, at least through the metric of stock prices and investors profit margins, have increased so dramatically since January? Is this sustainable? Will the Fed's decision to increase the interest rates, most likely by the end of the month, have an immediate effect? What is the likelihood of another recession/crash happening in the next few years?

    These are all good questions that there honestly isn't a single answer for but I can at least give you my opinion.

    1. Markets have increased since the Trump election because stocks have been increasing regularly since around 2010 and Trump has proposed policy measures that would aid many corporations like reducing foreign competition in the US, reducing corporate taxes, repealing Dodd-Frank, etc. Also, there are so many more individual investors in the market right now due to the simplicity of buying ETFs (exchange traded funds) that basically let you buy a market basket. These products have been extremely popular and they are feeding back into the market driving prices higher. Is this sustainable? My answer is maybe, but from an investor perspective I'm holding something like 40% cash right now while I try to figure out if there is a catalyst that could bring this crashing down.

    2. The Fed decision to increase rates is mostly known and 'priced in' so it probably wont have an immediate effect is my guess. Because economic signals are fairly strong and rates have been so low for so long, this is mostly looked upon as a favorable action by the fed.

    3. The crash/recession likelihood is totally unknown to me as I was saying before, it could be a number of factors that could cause it and usually those factors are pretty difficult to spot unless you're digging in one-by-one on potential ideas. If banking regulations are relaxed, capital requirements are lowered, trade barriers enacted, etc then yeah maybe but typically there is a reason for things to turn around. One thing that does worry me is as I was saying before, so many mom-and-pops are in ETFs that if the market goes even a little sour they might start selling out of their positions which will only drive overall market prices lower. Most of these people are not hedged against market losses so they are more likely to panic out and bring the whole thing tumbling after them.


    Hope it wasn't too long winded, but those are my opinions of what might be coming.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by Ҩ on Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:29 am

    This was helpful, thanks. Since I have no presence in the market, and probably won't for a very, very long time, my relationship with it is very weird. I've spent a lot of time in political economy courses so I have that particular way of understanding markets and their historical emergence, but I never know anything about present-day market conditions. It makes me mad sometimes because I feel like I'm living in that one South Park episode when the town venerates this ambiguous and mythic power. Whenever I ask 'adults' in my life though, they just start telling me about how establishing credit and developing equity is important. And I'm always like, yeah, I get that but that isn't what I am fucking asking dog! (I've always felt their this insistence on this point is weird as well and points to some sort of deep insecurity in everyone about common sense or purposive market logic. It's so ingrained in them, but they don't seem to understand why, not that I guess it really matters).

    What is the difference between Exchange Traded Funds and Mutual Funds? Is there one? I will probably pester with you more questions later on (hopefully there won't be cause for any cataclysmic question asking), but for now I don't have anything else.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by C-poots on Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:48 pm

    No its cool, I like talking about this sort of stuff so ask away. And also keep in mind that I'm just a guy who is interested in this stuff, who maintains a small portfolio, and has a risk tolerance that might be a bit higher than average.

    an ETF is an exchange traded fund - some company will create a fund that has a strict set of rules such as "we will maintain an investment in all of the stocks in the S&P 500 and our investment in them will be weighted according to their market cap relative to one another." What this means for the investor is that there is no one behind the scenes saying "I think I know what to invest in!" because it has already been decided and is determined by the overall market itself. This second scenario is typical of a mutual fund. Even if the mutual fund is using the same strategy as an ETF, its going to be managed by people which factors into point two below.

    These ETFs can have a number of rules they follow, but the two main differences between ETFs and Mutual Funds is 1) ETFs are passively managed ie. managed by rules, not analysts/managers. 2) typically much cheaper for the investor to get into ETFs. Mutual funds might require a 1% of assets-under-management fee per year, which might not sound like a lot but will completely cut into your compounding after some time. ETFs on the other hand are usually very very low fee with the average somewhere around %0.45 per year.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by reuben on Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:09 pm

    I've got some money in an index fund at Vanguard.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by C-poots on Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:22 am

    I've been doing well so far with my BOTZ index fund, but I guess so has almost everything. Apple and BOTZ are doing the best, AMD and CGA are kind of just sitting there.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by ClosetOfExhaustion on Thu Mar 30, 2017 11:05 am

    i have a 401k that has benefited from working at the same place for 17 years now. used to be split up among a handful of funds that gave me some level of diversification (small cap, large cap, international, index). after the post-inauguration end of Feb peak i moved a sizable percentage over to one of those "target year retirement funds", anticipating that would provide more insurance against an economic downtown. i may want to more another % into steady bonds.

    buying a houme and getting married and expecting a kid sure change your investment approach.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by Bruegel on Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:18 pm

    kind of freaking out about this story:


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/09/punk-beermaker-brewdog-sells-22-of-firm-to-private-equity-house


    'Punk' beer maker BrewDog sells 22% of firm to private equity house

    Early investors in “punk” beer firm BrewDog will be able to bank a hefty profit this week. An injection of cash from a private equity house valued the company at £1bn, 10 years after it began life in its co-founder’s mother’s garage.

    San Francisco-based TSG Consumer Partners agreed to buy 22% of BrewDog, whose idiosyncratic beers and international network of bars have won it a cult following, in a deal worth £213m.

    Some £100m will be invested in the business while TSG, which also owns US brewer Pabst, also spent £113m buying shares from existing investors, according to the Sunday Times.



    Founders James Watt and Martin Dickie are understood to have made £100m between them as a result of the deal, a decade after they used a £20,000 bank loan to start brewing in Fraserburgh, Aberdeenshire.

    BrewDog’s army of nearly 50,000 “Equity Punks”, its name for investors in four previous rounds of crowdfunding, will be able to sell up to 15% of their shares from this week, the company said.

    Watt told investors that they stand make a return of 2,800% if they were among those who bought in at the first opportunity in 2010.


    That fundraising effort valued the company at just £26m, but the brewer has grown rapidly since then by capitalising on the growing popularity of so-called “craft” beers, tending towards strong hop flavours and higher alcohol content.

    It now employs 800 staff, is opening BrewDog bars across the world and has begun building a brewery in Columbus, Ohio, as a launchpad for a bid to conquer America.

    TSG’s investment values the company, which posted a £7m pre-tax profit on £71m of revenues last year, at £1bn. The valuation means that even late-stage investors who bought equity last year could make a 177% return if they choose to sell.

    Shareholders cleared the way for the investment by approving changes to BrewDog’s capital structure at a meeting on 29 March, the company said, with 95% voting in favour. The changes include the award of preference shares to TSG, which confer the right to an annual return of 18% if the company is bought or lists on the stock market, according to reports.

    “Ever since we first started this journey in Martin’s mum’s garage, BrewDog has existed to make other people as passionate about great craft beer as we are,” said Watt, adding: “We remain more laser focused on that goal than ever before.

    “We’re not going to let the deal go to our heads, but Martin did buy himself a new jumper.”

    The company also told its annual meeting that turnover rose 60% last year and predicted even better growth for 2017.

    BrewDog’s decision to accept investment from a private equity group drew some comment in the light of its repeated efforts to cast itself in the role of a “punk” upstart sceptical of major corporations.



    I bought a handful of shares in 2010 and quite a few more in 2011. I'll be selling as much as I can ASAP because:

    a) I think this over values them, they are massively stretched an I think their current US expansion will be a step too far

    and

    b) my job situation is prety precarious atm, so several thousand pounds would come in really handy right now


    Last edited by Bruegel on Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by C-poots on Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:22 pm

    Congrats on the 2,800% profit on the investment though. Brew Dog was actually one of my go-to beers/pubs(?) when I was in London but I had no idea of their back story.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by Bruegel on Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:22 pm

    One of my best mates bought +£1000 of shares in the first round of funding. I think he's been dusting off his calculator today.
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    Re: Investors Annonymous

    Post by Bruegel on Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:29 pm

    The beer and brand has become increasingly shitty as their influence is spread thinner and thinner but the two dudes who set it up are great. It was their enthusiasm at a tasting back in '09 that convinced me to invest.  I don't like their bars but they still knock out some reasonable small batch stuff.

    I'll certainly pull out something special from the cellar to toast them at some point over the next week.

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