Baseball

Nick wrote:I really don't think anyone was knocking down Samardjiza's door hoping to sign him if the Cubs did not.

his pre-draft stock is mostly irrelevant at this point

You can analyze all the stats you want but the guy is a mediocre pitcher at best.  He'll probably have the exact same season or slightly worse in 2014 as in '13.

I'd take the over on that. And his '13 wasn't even really mediocre, although he's obviously losing value as his price goes up year on year.

They'll ship him in the off season if not before the deadline and you'll never hear from him again except when he's getting tagged during MLB Network highlights.

I don't think he's a phenom the Cubs will miss for a long time but he's a worthwhile pitcher and they'll probably get a nice return on him when they flip him at the deadline. And he'll probably go somewhere with a friendlier home park and see a nice bump in his stats.

Here's an introductory baseball analytics lesson, WP.

Strikeouts are considered a very trustworthy "traditional stat" for a pitcher's raw quality. This is because strikeouts represent what is called a "true outcome" as it does not require the defense to be involved in the play. Any play where the defense becomes involved has a lot more factors than simply the quality of the pitch involved. Is the defense behind him good? Is it a tiny ballpark? Did the hitter get lucky and his line drive went 5 feet to the left of the shortstop instead of right to him? BABIP is the most common stat for analyzing what happens in these non-"true outcome" scenarios. Jeff Samardzija was 5th in the majors in K/9 innings last year behind AJ Burnett, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg. His elite strikeout numbers indicate elite skills.

He was also 5th in the majors in innings pitched and threw two complete games. The advanced baseball pitching metrics of FIP and xFIP suggest he was unlucky with his ERA because of abnormally high home run rates relative to his underlying strikeout, hit and walk numbers. Samardzija also has the bad luck of pitching in hitter friendly Wrigley and against NL Central division rivals with other hitter-friendly parks (like Miller Park in Milwaukee).

I think the main issue Raj and I have with the Samardzija debate is that it is extremely difficult to find major league quality pitching of his quality. You keep dismissing this guy as average or poor, but who are you going to get that's better? Who is any team going to get that's better? The Mets dipped back into the Daisuke Matsuzaka pool last year. Roy Oswalt was still vying for roster spots. Raj, how did you feel about DYLAN AXELROD throwing 120+ innings for your White Sox last year?

Pitching talent is at such a premium that unspectacular guys like Mark Burhle who just chew up innings get multi year deals to pitch for 10 million plus. Scott Kazmir was barely walking two years ago and one resurgent season has him getting 2 years and $22 million from the Athletics. You can't find dudes to strike out 200 batters a season in anyones farm system because they don't exist.

Samardzija has never had a season as good as people want to expect from him, but its not inconceivable that he might actually have that season eventually. In fact, the numbers suggest he will.

I mean, it still blows my mind (and I think about this alot in the shower in the morning) that of all the debates we've had over the years... Music, TV, movies, etc that this fucking guy - an average tight end at an average college who is an average MLB pitcher has garnered such support on this board.


  

jasperness wrote: Raj, how did you feel about DYLAN AXELROD throwing 120+ innings for your White Sox last year?

By that point in a lost season it was pretty meaningless but yeah, that's a good example of how in-demand major league pitching talent is, even flawed or partially unrealized talent.

unspectacular guys like Mark Burhle who just chew up innings get multi year deals to pitch for 10 million plus

I of course have to disagree with the idea Buehrle is unspectacular, although his deal was probably an overpay, which is why the Sox let him walk.

jasperness wrote:Here's an introductory baseball analytics lesson, WP.

Strikeouts are considered the a very trustworthy "traditional stat" for a pitcher's raw quality.

Thanks? I'll take your word for it and sports analytics are not my specialty. Although it seems pretty obvious that depending on one single statistic to explain the potential for a pitcher is flawed. Marmol struck out a lot of batters too and he fucking sucked. At some point I just want to see that a pitcher can get wins. I understand that he had a high ceiling of potential (that shrinks each year) but that doesn't amount to much if the ceiling is never reached.

There is just no reason for the Cubs to have roped themselves into a large, multi-year contract with a player who had those numbers last year.

Nick I don't follow baseball but I'm pretty sure he was a wide receiver.

Tight end.

Wasn't good enough to be a wide out.

Huh?

Jeff Samardzija was a star wideout at Notre Dame. He had two 1,000 yard seasons. It's not even worth talking shop if you're going to be such a know nothing fucking moron.

wp64 wrote:At some point I just want to see that a pitcher can get wins.

i can't really engage with you on the topic if you believe pitchers "get wins".

pitchers give up runs and teams get wins. a pitcher's win performance will always depend on a multitude of factors outside their control.

further, my post does more to analyze Samardzija than say that "he's good because he strikes people out". though that's a pretty good starting point.

wp64 wrote:There is just no reason for the Cubs to have roped themselves into a large, multi-year contract with a player who had those numbers last year.

it has the potential to be a low-risk high-reward proposition. he hasn't performed that well by some traditional metrics, so you can actually extend him at a cheaper rate than if he had pitched well. and all the other performance indicators suggest he could get better. and he's young.

if you sign the extension now and he tanks this year, the contract is still tradeable to other teams still willing to gamble on his upside.

if you sign the extension now and he breaks out, you get him at a discount for multiple seasons.

this is how being a general manager works.

Nick wrote:I mean, it still blows my mind (and I think about this alot in the shower in the morning) that of all the debates we've had over the years... Music, TV, movies, etc that this fucking guy - an average tight end at an average college who is an average MLB pitcher has garnered such support on this board.


  

Samardzija was a player that a friend of mine and i used to disagree on when he was playing at Notre Dame and we were really into college football. i became super intrigued when i learned he wanted to play baseball instead and hooked when i learned his parents were Serbian immigrants!

i think it's more a product of people wanting to talk baseball and finding some common ground to get our views across. he's a good player to divide opinions.

Pitchers don't get wins but they sure are a big part of making it possible. Maybe if the Cubs were not already stuck with Edwin Jackson's disastrous contract they'd be willing to negotiate a long-term deal with Samardzjia. Given the phase of their current rebuilding process it isn't sensible to be taking any risks whatsoever.

I'm watching baseball on television right now!   

Josh Reddick yesterday, my word.