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    2018 Midterms

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    Post by Ned Braden Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:53 am

    undo wrote:https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/ted-cruz-favorability-february-2018

    How does this guy get to win an election without even trying against a very charismatic opponent in 2018?

    How does he even appeal to his base, who definitely don't trust and often truly despise Ivy League career politicians?

    How does a dude born in Canada get that "real Texan" credibility while his opponent, actually born and raised in the state, has to prove he's not an outsider?

    I use the word dude really loosely here.

    He's a republican incumbent in texas. If there are no republican challengers, he wins by default, basically. Am I off base? I can't imagine anybody watching these two people and still opting for Cruz, but...   the GOP, republican voters, the right in our country in 2018...  don't vote for the favorable/likeable/just/morally acceptable candidate. They vote to "win." Whatever that means.
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    Post by techno raj Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:24 am

    Ned Braden wrote:He's a republican incumbent in texas. If there are no republican challengers, he wins by default, basically. Am I off base? I can't imagine anybody watching these two people and still opting for Cruz, but...   the GOP, republican voters, the right in our country in 2018...  don't vote for the favorable/likeable/just/morally acceptable candidate. They vote to "win." Whatever that means.

    Wouldn't occam's razor be that they vote for the candidate that endorses views they support? I think that people overthink this when talking about the other side of the political spectrum.
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    Post by Duff... Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:52 pm

    Kind of. There's this thing with republicans/conservatives where they'll bitch about this whole host of issues they find with democrats/liberals but those concerns will either vanish or be ignored when their preferred candidate runs afoul of them, and in the end it's about abortion or low taxes.

    I understand this is a human thing that everyone is guilty of from time to time but is especially pronounced in the american conservative right now.
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    Post by WP64 Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:04 pm

    I have decided to swallow my pride and canvass for Sean Casten. I am going to an information session next week in Downers Grove and then I am planning on spending 8-12 hours on both the Saturday and Sunday before the election knocking on doors.

    I love you, America. Please don't let me down again.
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    Post by undo Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:06 am



    Imagine if Dick Durbin went to a rally and said "In November we're going to see record shattering Republican turnout. But here's the good news. This is Illinois!"

    He'd get laughed off the fucking stage, as anyone should.
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    Post by WP64 Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:50 am

    I still can't believe grown ass men are walking around in those stupid fucking hats. That poster is the dumbest thing I have maybe ever seen. Texas is dumb as hell.
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    Post by undo Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:15 pm

    I was assuming/under the impression that Steve King wasn’t up for re-election this year, because I hadn’t read or heard any discussion about how important it was to remove him and how that could and should be a priority for the safety of the country and a very reasonable goal in an election cycle where extreme right wing politicians should (?) be vulnerable, and how it shouldn’t be difficult to call him out on his white supremecist/actual Nazi-sympathizing views and associations in a way that resonates with even the dumbest voters...but apparently he’s just walking to an easy win?

    I thought Iowa, being Iowa all things considered etc, was a moderate state but it looks like the joke’s on me
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    Post by Duff... Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:25 pm

    Yeah I mean any district that is electing Steve King ever is going to keep electing Steve King.
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    Post by undo Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:31 pm

    Okay yeah but that’s just one of the most dire things I’ve read all year.

    How does that not apply to almost ever Republican held seat? We’re not talking Mississippi here I mean
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    Post by Duff... Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:24 pm

    I guess I don't know that much about Iowa but I don't have a lot of trouble imagining a Steve King being elected in a rural district of Illinois. It's a big portion of the state but ain't many people in it. I think they know what they've purchased and have no problem with it.
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    Post by ClosetOfExhaustion Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:07 pm

    while 3 weeks from now we'll all be pissed that Beto lost i'm hopeful 2 years and 3 weeks from now maybe we'll all be pretty pumped to cast a vote for him
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    Post by undo Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:38 am

    I love giving star ratings to politicians (sincere)

    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/recommendations/article/Senate-Beto-ORourke-Ted-Cruz-2018-endorsement-13320986.php
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    Post by Nick Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:14 am

    I think I’m confused as to what is the next logical step for Beto. He’s going to lose an election & then use that as a springboard to win a Presidential Election?

    I don’t see that working. He’s going to be complete fodder for Trump and his base. A field of women that Trump will have spent 4 years disparaging, some also rans & a guy that lost to Lyin’ Ted? Trump wins in a landslide.

    My concern is the Democratic Party has zero exciting candidates that can win a National Election. I honestly think Bernie is still the best shot at Trump getting one term.
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    Post by Duff... Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:27 pm

    Honestly think the biggest battle dems face is that they keep insisting every democratic candidate is terrible for some mundane reason while republicans are like "A racist moron game show host who sexually assaults people and then brags about it? Outta my way, I wanna vote first."
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    Post by Nick Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:02 pm

    Yea but that racist moron and his Parade of Evil turned out in huge numbers & will again in 2020. Add in 4 years of Republicans disenfranchisement & it is going to take a wide appealing, inspirational figure for Democrats to get the mass turnout they need.

    Maybe that person is Beto. I don’t think it’s Elizabeth Warren or Joe Biden.
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    Post by Duff... Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:08 pm

    Nick wrote:Yea but that racist moron and his Parade of Evil turned out in huge numbers

    Honest question: Did they? He lost the popular vote by a wide margin and won narrowly in a few key places. My understanding is that dems just didn't show up.
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    Post by techno raj Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:49 pm

    Duff... wrote:Honestly think the biggest battle dems face is that they keep insisting every democratic candidate is terrible for some mundane reason while republicans are like "A racist moron game show host who sexually assaults people and then brags about it? Outta my way, I wanna vote first."

    I think this is mostly dead on, but you have to take it one step further. Many people were hardly enthused about voting for him, he had just sold them on that idea that Hilary was equally bad or worse, and at least he would provide a tax cut and a conservative Supreme Court justice. And the reason his supporters have (mostly) stuck with him is that he delivered on those things.

    Liberals generally start from finding disqualifiers and tally them up until a candidate is unacceptable. Hence all the complaints with the various candidates for 2020, as you noted.

    Conservatives start from finding a few key qualifiers and then mostly let everything else slide. Trump was the most consistent/strident on what conservative voters really cared about, so he won.

    Nick is buying into Trump's marketing. He had normal turnout and his supporters are largely people who were always enthusiastic conservatives, whether it was under the GOP banner or the Tea Party or MAGA. Trump just realized that running hard right on immigration would give him the edge in the primaries. In the general election, he was winning with mostly the same voters Romney got.
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    Post by Duff... Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:41 pm

    raj gibson wrote:

    Liberals generally start from finding disqualifiers and tally them up until a candidate is unacceptable. Hence all the complaints with the various candidates for 2020, as you noted.

    Conservatives start from finding a few key qualifiers and then mostly let everything else slide.

    Huh, never thought of it that way.
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    Post by undo Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:55 pm

    Duff... wrote:I guess I don't know that much about Iowa but I don't have a lot of trouble imagining a Steve King being elected in a rural district of Illinois. It's a big portion of the state but ain't many people in it. I think they know what they've purchased and have no problem with it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/26/hes-so-openly-racist-why-does-iowa-keep-electing-steve-king-to-congress

    Going to cook dinner now but will read this later.
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    Post by WP64 Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:49 pm

    It's not that insightful really. I did send it along to my sister though since she will be voting in that district (she goes to Iowa State).
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    Post by Nick Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:46 am

    I went to my parent’s house yesterday to watch the Packers game & left before halftime. A fucking Peter Roskam ad came on & my dad went ballistic about how awful the Democrats are & spouting Fox News talking points about the out of control extreme Left.

    My mom tried to stop the argument but I countered about all Trump supporters being a parade of degenerate racists that are destroying our economy, climate and inciting violence.

    He was like, “So you think your father is a degenerate?!?!” And I said, “Your support is in line with that of people I consider degenerates.”

    He went upstairs & closed the door & then I left.
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    Post by WP64 Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:29 pm

    That’s a bummer, Nick. I feel like the consensus opinion is just to avoid these sorts of arguments at all costs with family members because they are never productive and only lead to irreconcible fighting. But fuck that honestly. I’ve had similar arguments with my Dad where I called him a monster, asshole, degenerate, etc. I don’t regret any of that because he was behaving and acting like a degenerate and monster. It is what it is.
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    Post by Duff... Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:06 pm

    WP64 wrote:I feel like the consensus opinion is just to avoid these sorts of arguments at all costs with family members because they are never productive and only lead to irreconcible fighting.

    This doesn't sound accurate.
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    Post by undo Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:24 pm

    I've avoided Internet debates with bad faith trolls pretty well over the last year, I know there's no point in having a "debate" with people like this and you can't use facts and reason with someone who's whole persona is being a "reasonable centrist" who plays the both sides are equally bad-game, which is really effective on people unfamiliar with this kind of rhetoric. But I'm tired of watching these performances go unchallenged or misunderstood by onlookers as good faith-characterizations of reality (specifically, the "I don't care if you're white or if you're black, all racism is wrong!" / "calling someone a sexist, whether you're a woman or a man, makes you no better than the people you're trying to demonize!" / etc. This isn't a case of arguing with strangers on social media, but people taking this stuff into spaces I call home online and feel protective of as the fucking Twitter/Reddit-ization of the whole Internet is just turning every site I use into a monoculture of 4chan memes and ironic hate speech brushed off as jokes. After weeks of resisting this, I eventually got baited into replying and I think I let myself get cast as a disrespectful, far left asshole, which I don't care about except that this played out in front of a bunch of impressionable people who saw a "debate" that I let someone else define from beginning to end.

    Complaining about this and letting it get to me feels incredibly immature and it just feeds into a cycle of feeling bad and stupid about even caring about it in the first place. I realize this is all in my head and that getting out of my head is the best medicine for dealing with it, but I'm stuck at the computer all day transcribing conversations from marketing focus groups and the boredom and ennui that comes with that is a poor condition for dealing with stress. Choosing to engage someone like this the night before a job interview was also a horrible decision, obviously.

    I canvassed for [progressive Democratic congressional candidate in a contested race that is still leaning Republican] last weekend and it was not the energizing experience I was hoping it would be and I don't know if I have the time or energy to go back and do it again, but I tell myself that covering that neighborhood was still important, if only that it ensured that someone else was free to knock on doors somewhere else that may have yielded a better response. (Don't let this dissuade you from volunteering yourself, I just want to vent and the lack of response I got from canvassing probably had a lot to do with the day and time I was out there doing it.)

    I am sorry to hear about your experience, Nick. I cannot offer any advice. I come from a very small family and have no experiences with dealing with people very close to me who have gotten wrapped up in those kind of resentment-fueled talking points. The closest thing I've ever experienced to that was watching the news with my dad two years ago and suddenly watching him get really riled up about...NFL players complaining about lifelong physical and mental health issues as a result of multiple concussions. He's suffered tons of injuries in his life, barely even watches football and clings to no grievances that could have made him sympathetic to the idea that football players are overpaid/shouldn't complain/should know what they were getting into, et cetera. This isn't really comparable to your circumstances but it was shocking to me how suddenly I was unable to address his concerns in any patient-sounding or unemotional fashion. It's completely disarming when someone you love suddenly surprises you with a belief you find morally unacceptable or incompatible with what you believe about that person.
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    Post by Duff... Tue Oct 30, 2018 4:10 pm

    undo wrote:
    Duff... wrote:I guess I don't know that much about Iowa but I don't have a lot of trouble imagining a Steve King being elected in a rural district of Illinois. It's a big portion of the state but ain't many people in it. I think they know what they've purchased and have no problem with it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/26/hes-so-openly-racist-why-does-iowa-keep-electing-steve-king-to-congress

    Going to cook dinner now but will read this later.

    Not to get anyone's hopes up but.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/steve-king-iowa-republican-midterms.html

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