Baseball

You predicted he would be a "bullpen guy" on most good teams. Which still isn't true. Although feel free to list those teams for amusement purposes.

going to see the chicago white sox take the field and hopefully play baseball this lovely sunny friday.

first trip of probably all 2 i'll make this year.

The Shark would not be in the starting rotation for the top 3 in the NL Central. Definitely not for the Dodgers or Braves.

Maybe Cleveland or KC?

And that is assuming if he couldn't make their rotation they'd want him for the pen.

Nick wrote:The Shark would not be in the starting rotation for the top 3 in the NL Central. Definitely not for the Dodgers or Braves.

Maybe Cleveland or KC?

So you think Jeff Locke is better than Samardzija? Jake Westbrook (more walks than strikeouts this year) is a better option for the Cardinals? I can almost see the Reds, assuming DustyLogic would be at work in rating Leake higher.

I guess I could see the Braves if you assume max optimism for each of their young guys as well as Beachy returning from injury. The Dodgers are starting Chris Capuano.

Indians could use him over several of their guys, as could the Royals.

And that is assuming if he couldn't make their rotation they'd want him for the pen.

He has the fourth-best fastball velocity in baseball. Even if he was as bad as you think he is, most MLB teams would give him a shot based on that if nothing else.

Given how bad he has looked in the 1st inning of most his starts I don't think contending teams would trust him coming out of the pen.

Who cares about strike outs when you can't get a win?

who cares about a pitcher's win/loss record, ever?

i truly believe Samardzija would be pitching better if he had gotten the confidence boost of winning the games he pitched really well in during the first half of the season. he has definitely been "disappointing" though. i was projecting him as a second-tier ace this year. behind the Kershaw-type elite aces, but definitely still a number one starter. to this point he has been more of a high end number 3 starter. i think this should've been a big year in his development and he has taken a step forward this year, but not a leap. i wouldn't project him as highly next year as i did this year.

i still think if a couple different coin flips land differently, Francisco Liriano would've already been DFA'd by the Pirates and Samardzija would be 10-5

Also:

any thoughts on the Rios trade, Raj?

any thoughts on Starlin Castro's abortion of a season, Nick?

First, The Shark would not go 10-5 in AA ball forget MLB.

Second, Castro's lack of progress this season (putting it kindly) is not just disappointing but very concerning for the future of that position. He was supposed to be a cornerstone piece but now you have to wonder if after next season's trade deadline he is even there.

jasperness wrote:Francisco Liriano

...aaaaand Colorado'D

Just be glad you don't have Cole Hamels, Nick. That guy is 4-13! The Phillies need to just eat the remaining five years of that contract and move on.

jasperness wrote:Also:

any thoughts on the Rios trade, Raj?

It's just about what was expected. I think a lot of the fans are kind of upset because Rios has been solid this year and great last year and they were expecting a pretty good prospect in return, but the fact is he's pretty well paid and didn't really have a ton of excess value. If he did, the Sox would have been able to move him before the non-waiver deadline. And the return is exactly the kind of guy they like for their system - toolsy guy who strikes out a lot and was moved through the minors really aggressively for some reason.

Interesting thing will be to see what the Sox do with the money they've saved, as the Rios and Peavy trades together freed up an enormous amount of money. And they'll have even more coming off the books next year. Some will go to international signings and more repair work for the farm system. Their terrible record this year will also give them a higher draft spending cap for the first 10 picks next year. I'm cautiously optimistic about the club as a whole, but they really need to show they can develop hitter plate discipline in the minors to match the stream of useful pitchers they produce.

By the way Jasper, your picks are looking pretty good.

jasperness wrote:AL WEST: (Los Angeles) Angels of Anaheim
AL CENTRAL: Cleveland Indians
AL EAST: Tampa Bay Rayz
AL WILD CARD 1: Oakland A's
AL WILD CARD 2: Detroit Tigers

NL WEST: LA Dodgers
NL CENTRAL: Cincinnati Reds
NL EAST: Atlanta Braves
NL WILD CARD 1: SF Giants
NL WILD CARD 2: Washington Nats

i don't like picking the Angels/Dodgers as the two winners of the West but it feels like at some point failing so many times with a huge payroll will eventually pay off.

You have a decent shot at having correctly identified 4/5 of the AL playoff teams and 3/5 of the NL playoff teams.

jasperness wrote:who cares about a pitcher's win/loss record, ever?

Only about 90% of the sports-watching public. Sorry, smart guys.

yancy wrote:

jasperness wrote:who cares about a pitcher's win/loss record, ever?

Only about 90% of the sports-watching public. Sorry, smart guys.

not worth talking baseball with those people

baseball is a thinking man's sport

raj gibson wrote:Just be glad you don't have Cole Hamels, Nick. That guy is 4-13! The Phillies need to just eat the remaining five years of that contract and move on.

i think Hamels has been better than Samardzija this year. and i think even more with Hamels that he would be having an even better season on a contending team.

raj gibson wrote:By the way Jasper, your picks are looking pretty good.

baseball has been relatively straightforward this year. maybe 5 or 6 decently surprising teams (Boston, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Anaheim, San Francisco and Washington). good teams are mostly being good and bad teams are mostly being bad.

jasperness wrote:not worth talking baseball with those people

baseball is a thinking man's sport

Agreed on both counts.

Guys I am reading Moby Dick so don't try to tell me I don't understand fucking baseball.

Hey Scherzer those 17 wins sound nice & look cool on an MLB Tonight graphic but we'll have to take a closer look at the stats because wins don't mean shit.

Breaking News: Big data blog Wins Don't Mean Shit convinces MLB to grant playoff spot to team that has a pitcher with losing record but good fastball and little confidence.

Bud Selig says "We are calling it The Samardzja clause."

Nick wrote:Guys I am reading Moby Dick so don't try to tell me I don't understand fucking baseball.

OTM Tom Berringer style.

this is like the argument i had with my friend this week who tried to insist Gio Gonzalez was better than Chris Sale because of his win-loss record

i think using an advanced metric like xFIP which was invented in 2005 to evaluate a player is far less ridiculous than evaluating them on the winning pitcher rule that was invented in the 19th century

Nah, win-loss tells you everything you need to know. And RBIs are the best way to evaluate hitters. Brandon Phillips is a way better hitter than Joey Votto.

i think Brandon has probably been the butt of a few too many jokes this season about how he's better than Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo. he's been a great clutch hitter for most of his career and it deflects the real and legitimate criticism that needs to continue to be flung at Dusty Baker for his inept lineups.

Advanced metrics taking hold of MLB rather than PEDs are the reason people no longer give a shit about the sport and it is shrinking into irrelevancy.

If NBC doesn't fuck up their coverage of the Premier League I could see baseball falling behind the NFL, NBA, NHL and English league soccer in popularity.

as yancy pointed out, fans don't know about or care about advanced metrics